Roth Is Stunned - His Polls Predicted Victory

By CRIS BARRISH and PATRICK JACKSON, Staff reporters

GEORGETOWN - Sen. Bill Roth has told friends and fellow politicians he was shocked by his loss to Gov. Tom Carper because his campaign's polls showed him winning by a comfortable margin."He absolutely expected to win. He said the internal polls showed him they were way up," state Republican chairman Basil R. Battaglia said in the aftermath of Roth's 12 percent defeat. "We thought we were in good shape," Roth said during Return Day festivities in Georgetown Thursday. "We ran a positive campaign and had a positive message. But the people of Delaware decided it was time for a change.''

In the weeks before the election, Roth and his campaign manager, Jo Anne Barnhart, had told supporters that polls had Roth coasting to victory over Carper, a popular two-term Democratic governor who had never lost in 10 previous statewide races.Roth, 79, was seeking a sixth consecutive six-year term.Democratic Sen. Joe Biden said he had spoken to Roth twice since Election Day."He said, 'Joe, our polls had me winning. I thought we were going to do it, and we were getting a great reception on the campaign trail,' " Biden said Thursday in Georgetown.Roth's pollster was Arthur J. Finkelstein, a veteran GOP strategist whose clients have included New York Gov. George Pataki and former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato.

Finkelstein, who also polled for Roth's 1994 campaign, did not return calls Thursday.Independent polls by the University of Delaware and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. never showed Roth with a lead greater than 3 percent. Early in the race, those polls gave Carper a double-digit lead.Battaglia said that while many polls are accurate, the practice remains an inexact science."Did Finkelstein blow it? Who knows? People are fickle,'' Battaglia said.At Return Day, Roth had an informal lunch with staff members and campaign workers at his Georgetown office.

During a brief interview, Roth said he wasn't thinking about his future except for the arrival next year of his third grandchild."It's too soon,'' he said. "I really don't have any plans at this point.''Then he boarded a horse-drawn carriage with Carper, who was wearing a "Bill Roth'' pin on his lapel."I am an admirer of Bill Roth,'' Carper said.Several Roth aides gathered around the carriage, applauding their boss. During the parade, the group walked behind the carriage, while Roth and Carper joined hands above their heads.

"We talked about family, children, grandchildren, animals, that sort of thing,'' Carper said.

Roth said Return Day is an important Delaware tradition that promotes healing and reconciliation."But," he said, "it's more fun to be in it when you win.'' Staff reporter Molly Murray contributed to this article.

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